M.S.Swaminathan

UNESCO Chair in Ecotechnology at the M S Swaminathan Research Foundation

Perspective

The challenges ahead

In the coming millennium, we will have to produce more food and other agricultural commodities under conditions of diminishing per capita arable land and irrigation water resources and expanding biotic stresses, says M. S. Swaminathan, Chairman, M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai.

In 1798, Thomas Malthus warned humankind about the dire consequences of unchecked population growth. A billion persons are now being added to the human population every 12 to 13 years. This will call for an increase in the annual foodgrain production by 250 million tonnes once in every 10 years.

When Malthus published his essay in 1798 the global population was 980 million. The population of India alone is now 990 million. In spite of such a rapid rise in population, food production has on the whole kept pace with the needs of the expanding population during recent decades. How did this happen?

There are four important factors which have helped to keep Malthusian fears at bay. These are:

Rapid advances in science and technology, particularly in the area of breeding new varieties and hybrids of food crops which can respond well to irrigation water and good soil fertility,
Services like the production and distribution of good seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, as well as the organization of efficient credit and extension services,
Public policies in the areas of land reform, rural infrastructure development, input and output pricing and marketing, and
The hard work of farm women and men, who have demonstrated that whether they live in industrialised or developing countries, they will respond to technological progress and opportunities for assured and remunerative marketing.

Exploitive farming

Mutually reinforcing packages of technology, services and public policies led to the birth of what was termed in October 1968 by Dr. William Gaud of the United States as the green revolution. In January of the same year (1968), I made the following points in my presidential address to the Agricultural Science Section of the Indian Science Congress held at Varanasi.

"Exploitive agriculture offers great possibilities if carried out in a scientific way but poses great dangers if carried out with only an immediate profit motive. The emerging exploitive farming community in India should become aware of this. Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility and soil structure would lead, ultimately, to the springing up of deserts.

"Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in soils getting alkaline or saline. The indiscriminate uses of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water will lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming.

"The rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high-yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops. Therefore the initiation of exploitive agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced into traditional agriculture, and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us, in the long run, into an era of agricultural disaster rather than one of agricultural prosperity."

In subsequent years, the significance of my 1968 analysis has been widely realised. Julian Huxley wrote in 1957, "It is as if man has been suddenly appointed managing director of the biggest business of all, the business of evolution, whether he wants it or not he is determining the future direction of the evolution on the earth." It is clear that in the coming millennium, nature, humanity and technology must work in harmony. The present pattern of development based on the destruction of environmental capital stocks and life support systems, gross economic, social and gender inequity and jobless economic growth cannot lead to a better common future.

Three scientific revolutions

What are the new methods available to meet the first among the heirarchical needs of humankind, namely food?

The gene revolution - which provides a molecular understanding of the genetic basis of living organisms, as well as the ability to use this understanding to develop new processes and products for agriculture, the environment and for human and animal health.
The information and communication revolution - which allows rapid growth is the systematic assimilation and dissemination of relevant and timely information, as well as a dramatically improved ability to access the universe of knowledge and communicate through low cost electronic networks, and
The ecotechnology revolution which promotes the blending of the best in traditional knowledge and technology with frontier technologies such as biotechnology, space and information technologies, renewable energy and new materials. These scientific revolutions seem to be proceeding at an ever increasing pace, with most of the action occurring in a few places in industrialised nations.

The past ten years have seen dramatic advances in our understanding of how biological organisms function at the molecular level, as well as in our abilities to analyse, understand and manipulate DNA molecules, the biological material from which the genes in all organisms are made.

Several large corporations in Europe and the United States have made major investments in adapting these technologies to produce new plant varieties of agricultural importance for large-scale commercial agriculture. The same technologies have equally important potential applications for addressing food security in the developing world.

There are widespread public concerns about the potential adverse impact of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on human health and the environment. Some of these concerns are genuine. In order to take advantage of recombinant DNA technologies without associated harm to human or ecological health, it is important that every country has in place suitable institutional structures and regulations for biosafety, bioethics and biosurveillance.

The information technology revolution

New communication and computing technologies will have profound implications in everyday research activities.

Access to the Internet will soon be universal, and it can provide unrestricted low-cost access to information, as well as highly interactive distance learning. The Internet will not only facilitate interactions among researchers, but also greatly improve their ability to communicate effectively with the potential users of their research knowledge.
Computing makes it possible to process large-capacity databases (libraries, remote sensing and GIS data, gene banks) and to construct simulation models with possible applications in ecosystem modelling, preparation of contingency plans to suit different weather probabilities and market variables.
The software industry is continuously providing new tools that increase research productivity and create new opportunities for understanding complex systems of growing conditions.
Remote sensing and other space satellite outputs are providing detailed geographic information useful for land and natural resources management.

The ecotechnology revolution

Knowledge is a continuum. There is much to learn from the past in terms of the ecological and social sustainability of technologies. At the same time, new developments have opened up new opportunities for developing technologies which can lead to high productivity without any adverse impact on the natural resources base. Blending traditional and frontier technologies leads to the birth of ecotechnologies with combined strength in the following areas; economics, ecology, equity, employment and energy.

For example, in the area of water harvesting and sustainable use, there are many lessons to be learnt from the past. In the desert area of Rajasthan, drinking water is available even in areas with 100 mm annual rainfall, largely because women continue to harvest water in simple structures called kunds. In contrast, drinking water is scarce during summer months in some parts of the north-east with an annual rainfall of 15,000 mm. Thus, there is need to conserve traditional wisdom and practices, which are often tending to become extinct.

Precision Farming

Precision agriculture involves a systems approach to experimental design and agronomic practices. It needs inter-disciplinary research drawing on expertise in a range of subject areas such as agronomy, plant science, genetics, soil science, entomology, meteorology, weed science, plant physiology, plant pathology, ecology and economics. Agricultural extension workers using information technology will play an increasingly important role in crop production and natural resource management. The Curricula of agricultural schools and colleges need to be modified to make precision agriculture the road to an evergreen revolution. Precision agriculture is particularly valuable for increasing opportunities for skilled employment in the farming sector.

For example, computer software development, equipment fabrication sales, custom hiring of software and farm equipment, local production of biofertilizers, biopesticides and drip irrigation equipment and consultancy services can all provide new opportunities for unskilled workers to become skilled.

In conclusion, it may be appropriate to recall what Varro, a Roman land owner said in the first century B.C.

"Agriculture is a science which teaches us what crops should be planted in each kind of soil, and what operations are to be carried on, in order that the land may produce the highest yields in perpetuity."

Varro was probably the earliest to define what we now call "sustainable agriculture."

Sustainable agriculture in the 21st century will be based on the appropriate use of biotechnology, information technology and ecotechnology. Practical achievements in bringing about the desired paradigm shift will depend upon public policy support and political action. Regulation through legislation, social mobilization through local level community organizations and education through the mass media and information shops will all be needed to meet the dual demands for food and ecological security.