Meeting the demand
"Veg or non-veg?" The Indian flight attendant waits patiently while the European disentangles the meaning from this simple question for, to him, it seems to be the wrong way round. A diet without meat is entirely right and proper for countless millions of people but how soon will it be before the question changes to "Meat or non-meat?" More and more people are accepting meat, as well as other animal products, as a normal part of their everyday diet and this is having a profound effect upon the livestock industry.
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credit: FAO
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Urban, affluent and concerned about quality and convenience. This describes the consumer who is helping to force the pace of change in livestock production throughout the world. How is the industry responding? Is it an all out race to supply the market and hang the consequences or will increasing concerns about food safety, animal welfare, and the environment, guide trends in production?
It is the newly emerging economies and developing countries that will have most influence. Here demand for livestock products is increasing faster than population growth alone could account for. 1.3 billion cattle, 900 million pigs, 1.8 billion goats and sheep, and more chickens than anyone could possibly count, reflect the huge increases in livestock numbers in recent years. Demand has been rising by more than five million tonnes per year, with the biggest surge in demand occurring in China. The trend will continue and probably accelerate. More people are living in towns and cities and, although the urban majority on low incomes must satisfy their hunger with low cost cereals and tuber crops, as incomes rise, diets change towards more animal protein. Again, China illustrates this clearly. Here urban people eat more meat (27kg per capita) and less rice (68kg) per year than those who live in rural areas who consume 17kg of meat and 103kg of cereals.
Convenience influences the choice of busy, urban consumers and, eventually, the wealthiest societies choose pre-packed and table-ready processed food. The grilled "TV chicken", slowly rotating behind its glass screen, is now a common pavement sight throughout the world. But fears of growth hormones and antibiotics, of BSE, and of eating too much cholesterol-rich red meat, also influence shopping patterns especially in the West. Here there is increasing interest in 'naturally-produced', 'safe' food and producers in all parts of the world are keen to supply to this affluent consumer. Although the market share of organic meat, milk and eggs is still small, it is growing fast notwithstanding the cost and complexities of organic certification.
One indicator of how seriously this demand for safer food must be taken are the measures agreed by the EU Agriculture Council which has a new '7 Point Plan' to revitalize the beef sector following disastrous knocks to consumer confidence by BSE and Foot and Mouth Disease. Stocking density limits will be revised to encourage more extensive forms of beef production. This will not only help to satisfy the consumer concerned about animal welfare (see Animal welfare - In the mire?) but should also help to appease environmental concerns (see The livestock revolution - devouring the planet?).
Consumers who are relatively wealthy can choose whether they wish to pay more for meat raised in a manner perceived to be 'safer' but, for the majority, price is the influencing factor. Industrial livestock systems provide food at least cost to the consumer but require standardization and automatic handling systems to gain the high outputs needed for a return on investment. This has implications for rural employment. Large-scale operations need tight control of feed supplies and other inputs to ensure efficient operation and they often have a tight control of the market as well. Small scale producers find themselves squeezed out of business.
What impact, if any, will biotechnology have on the livestock industry? According to Scotland's Roslin Institute, nuclear transfer can, in theory, be used to create an infinite number of clones of the very best farm animals. Indeed, cloned elite cows have already been sold at auction for over $40k each in the US. But it remains to be shown whether cloned farm animals would deliver expected commercial performance. Current concerns about the decrease in domestic animal diversity would be further exacerbated if cloning were to become common practice. Of far more significance in the short term is the claim that genetic engineering will permit greatly increased production of feedstuffs. This is already having an effect on trade (see Something to beef about) with the EU and the US squaring up to each other, banners waving, for and against hormone treated beef and genetically modified soya feed. Will the developing countries get trampled as these elephants fight?
The day may not be so far away when flight attendants in the West ask "Veg or non-veg?" - if indeed meals continue to be served on aircraft - but, in the rest of the world, meat consumption is likely to increase at least fourfold. The only question will be, 'How is it going to be produced?'
